Friday, March 22, 2019

More of the same...

The EU has allowed a new deadline of April 12th if May's deal is rejected in parliament again, after that the UK will have to allow MEP elections if it wants a long extension. If May's deal is agreed then the UK will have until May 22nd to pass all the legislation needed... presumably if we get to April 12th and don't want to do MEP elections we will have until May 22nd to exit on a no-deal basis with no option to revoke article 50 because we didn't have MEP elections, required under EU law... or does the fact that we did not have MEP elections mean we can not be in the EU beyond April 12th even though they are not going to sit until July 1st? No, if we can stay in until the 22nd to pass legislation should be able to stay in to that date to leave on no-deal... you can sort of see it gives the UK/EU some wriggle room to do a no-deal exit on painless terms if both sides want to (perhaps a transition with similar payments to the previously agreed interim period?).

If the speaker allows a third vote on May's deal then it should be the final vote, either Mrs May comes up with a new concept or she lets parliament do so but given the utter hopelessness of the opposition leadership don't hold your breath. Commonmarket 2.0  would be an utterly pointless Brexit and a bit dangerous as we would have little say in EU laws but still have to obey them - as a (five year) transition period it might not be too bad, though.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Millions set to sign revoke article 50 petition

At the time of writing, nearly a million have signed the petition to revoke article 50 on the parliament site, despite numerous crashes and slowness of the confirmatory email. Worth joining in, not sure what database parliament it is using to confirm ID, most departments having access to both the driving licence/passport database and NI database, often cross-check them if you are trying to access government services. Requires name, email and postcode, so work that one out for yourselves. Find the petition here.

Over two million have signed the petition at the time of this update but it took about six hours for the confirmatory email to turn up and then had to wait until late at night until the site worked well enough to take the link... so probably a lot more than two million have tried to sign up. BTW I am not on the electoral role so they are not using that to confirm ID.

All jeer now...

I think many voters will find the idea that Mrs May knows what they are thinking somewhere between highly objectionable and laughable, I would imagine that if we really had a Big Brother State (which she would love) that had cameras in the TV then she would have seen a majority of the populace jeering at the TV screen when she just came out with the same old mantra.

I do absolutely agree with her that a Brexit that isn't based on her redlines is rather pointless but because of the NI border those same redlines can't exist... I just had a vision of Mrs May running around in circles like a dog chasing its own tail.

High drama, though, Parliament refuses her deal, EU refuses an extension as it does not want more of the same, Parliament rules out no-deal again, she refuses a ratification referendum and... she either does a disappearing act at the crucial moment (rather likely given past form)- no deal happens regardless - or Parliament votes to revoke article 50 and mass happiness breaks out in the UK!

Hopefully, the Conservatives can still redeem themselves with a new leader such as Boris Johnson and an iron chancellor, slashing taxes and rolling back the State... keeping the Brexiteers happy will be top priority post-May, getting back to core Tory values a priority.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Corbyn's People's Vote...

After meeting with other opposition parties - all of whom want a second referendum and appeared surprised that Mr Corbyn was more enthusiastic about a People's Vote - our future PM explained to reporters that he was really enthusiastic about a People's Vote as long as it was a General Election. Hard to know if you should scream or burst into tears... pathetic sums it up.

Meanwhile, Mrs May has evidently been told by the EU that she can't ask for a short extension with the option of it being turned into a long extension, has decided to ask for a short extension until the end of June. Despite being told there has to be a fundamental shift in policy or a second referendum or general election to get any kind of extension. She seems to think she can resubmit her deal to parliament a couple of more times, despite being told she can't do that by the Speaker, until everyone runs out of time again and are panicked into agreeing to doing something they don't want to do. Pathetic again.

Both Corbyn and May seem to share the same intransigence and indifference to the reality of the situation, neither will be able to offer the electorate anything they actually want should there be a GE, people will vote just to avoid things they dislike!

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The End of Mrs May...

The Speaker has decanted that Mrs May can't bring her deal back to parliament for a third vote unless there have been some fundamental changes to the deal. The EU has said there will be no changes to the deal. The EU has also said there will probably be no extension unless there is something new on the table from Mrs May. The ERG hopeful that this means no-deal is more likely whilst the Remoaners think either revoking Article 50 or a second vote will need to happen. Mrs May has to act in an original and innovative manner but has shown no ability to do so during her political career. It would, of course, be a disaster for the feminine cause if Mrs May ended up like Mrs Thatcher, not quite all there at the end of her reign... just imagine such flakiness - to put it mildly  - coinciding with one of the most historical moments in the UK's fiscal history...

The only solution may well be to revoke Article 50 whilst simultaneously introducing a very tough, retrospective, residence test that would exclude people who have not been here for five years from access to welfare, social housing and the personal tax allowance. Exceptions made for front-line personnel such as nurses and as it would be non-continuous, Brits who have gone abroad and come back would not necessarily be caught by the test. Because the rules apply equally to Brits and foreigners, no EU permission needed.

When rough sleepers find themselves moved into social housing previously claimed by foreign families and low end jobs are suddenly vacated by foreigners who have been supported by tax credits and housing benefit, the pain of not doing Brexit will suddenly be lessened for the majority of leavers. The poorer end of society actually shocked that the government has listened to them!

Monday, March 18, 2019

Monster Raving Loony Party...

Whilst Boris and JRM tend to amuse the general populace, some of the more extreme Brexiteers being showcased by the media appear quite frightening, almost frothing at the mouth at the sheer outrage of not getting their way and surely more at home in the Monster Raving Loony Party... a poll showing Labour nicely ahead possibly not disconnected from these gentlemen gaining wide media attention. I say this as someone who thought Mrs Thatcher was wonderful; ever hopeful that Lord Tebbit might be wheeled out of retirement to sort out excessive government spending. So God knows what the populace at large think of them!

Saturday, March 16, 2019

May's third attempt could work...

Hints from the ERG and DUP that they might come onside with May's deal but with no-deal off the table will Remainers stay with the deal? Be hilarious if May finally got the Brexiteers' reluctant backing only to have the other side of her party deciding not to support it. That then leaves an extension or revoking Article 50 - will the EU chance no extension in the hope that Article 50 would then be revoked? Hard to believe Mrs May will come up with anything new on her deal, only option there is to agree to a ratification referendum, her deal versus remain, which the EU would happily agree to (they can still bring in an improved deal over what they offered Cameron). Overall then, best thing for the country is for May's deal to fail, win-win for Remainers.