Monday, August 19, 2019

No Deal Brexit

No deal Brexit will not be much fun and can only be done by a radical downgrading of government spending, slashing of income tax and minimal welfare. Finishing QE and increasing interest rates necessary to help with Sterling. Fixed costs such as the TV licence, council tax and standing charges from energy companies will also have to be abolished. The combination of that with much lower tax rates (flat twenty percent and no NI) means that people really will have a lot more dosh to spend.

Much money will be clawed back by the combination of a transaction tax and turnover tax, the latter variable according to the nature of the company and, perhaps, set by public vote via the internet – so that rip-off companies will pay a much higher tax. These taxes will also replace employer NI and business rates, equaling out the cost of online and High St companies. VAT will be reduced to match any increase in new tariffs, overall government revenue and consumer prices of UK produced items staying the same.Once things have settled down post Brexit, VAT can be completely replaced by increasing the transaction tax.

Welfare will consist of a single payment of £5000 per person and half that per child up to a limit of £12000 per household – the rest of the system will be dead except for disability benefits and pensions – although the state pension age would probably need to be around 75… Pension and charity tax relief gone, as will be rollovers into dodgy tax relief schemes. Social care funded by an inheritance tax levy, sales tax on houses with rates set by postcode (high where there is house price inflation, near zero in depressed areas).

Sounds mad but unless the State gets its spending sorted it will become a Failed State!

Saturday, June 15, 2019

What next for Brexit?

Boris becomes PM but no chance of a new exit deal from the Brussels bureaucrats who all have the look of someone wearing diapers, these days, but Merkel and co finally come out with a better deal than they offered Cameron to stay, mostly based on a much stricter residence test before access to benefits, tax credits, social housing etc - that means Boris has an excuse to call a second referendum on no deal v remain. He gets that through by saying no deal will win but then decides to go neutral, let the British people decide, only here to serve, etc.

The very restrictive freedom of movement rules that mean anyone can come here but they have no access to benefits etc for the first five years takes the bite out of remaining in the EU for the hardcore Brexiteers whilst the sixty percent of the populace who want to remain will be much relieved. Boris and Farage will then have to fight it out on who wants the smaller state, lower taxes for the next GE. Labour and LibDems/Greens will also split the left vote. Boris should still be able to slam his way to power, though, especially if he offers Nigel a top job if he joins the Conservatives!

Friday, May 31, 2019

Here Come the LibDems?

It has taken a long time for remain voters to suss the Labour party, the old quip of having a monkey as leader would still see them getting support from the heartlands. Corbyn will doubtless come out with some tosh about a referendum on a deal then say he was only talking about an opposition deal and not his own deal, if he ever got into power. 

The LibDems and Greens need some kind of electoral alliance and to tell the electorate that if they win a majority in a GE they will revoke article 50, that gets to sixty percent of the electorate and should sweep the board... the level of political honesty of the LibDems will, however, be shown if there is any attempt to throw in nefarious policies such as land tax on the back of their unusual popularity. 

No, they should concentrate on PR. doing something useful like building an excess of social housing and radical tax reform that moves some of the burden of taxation from the individual to companies - such as phasing out council tax in favour of a turnover tax on companies, taking the opportunity to also replace business rates and employer NI with a similar tax. That will free up some much needed spending power for individuals and level out the playing field between online and real shops. Turnover taxes are useful as it is much more difficult to obscure than profit.

Staying in the EU with a responsible but caring government should finally rescue the UK's reputation and result in a nice little boom, whilst PR will change British politics once and for all.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Euro's prediction

Labour will lose their youth vote to the Greens, Change and UKiP will not get a serious vote, and LibDem/Greens vote will be closer than expected to the Brexit Party. Labour will do nearly as badly as the Conservatives, both in single figures. The GE may be even more interesting with a Green/LibDem/Change coalition - the dream ticket would be Caroline Lucas as leader and Sir Vince as chancellor, getting most of the youth vote but not on the back of Labour's fantasy economics, so plenty of older voters would also be able to support them. The LibDem's would be the biggest problem as they burst into tears if confronted with nasty realities such as excluding foreigners from the welfare system until they have been here for five years; necessary to keep the Brexiteers from going into riot mode. Would they win against a Thatcherite Brexit Party in cohoots with a right-wing Tory party? Would depend where we are on the Brexit road.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Mrs May does not get it...

The Cameron/Osborne combination worked well for as long as it lasted. Cameron gave the Conservatives a very British - in the best sense of the word - front whilst Osborne was able to slash public spending and taxes, keeping the Conservative base support happy, or at least not enraged. There was relative restraint in bringing in new laws rather than the endless stream that politicians like to enact to justify their excessive salaries and very existence. 

Enter Mrs May, one of the reasons she got in was undoubtedly nostalgia for the days of Mrs Thatcher. Whilst Madame May has a similar determination to the Iron Lady she lacks any kind of vision other than hanging on to power by all possible means. She seems to believe that the main purpose of the State is its expansion by means of endless laws and often finds her ideas straight from the mouth of wannabe Marxist Corbyn. 

The great mass of Conservative supporters want none of this nonsense but this mostly goes unsaid or even unrealised, such is the intensity of angst and rage about Brexit. Gordon Brown cleverly set a massive trap for the Conservatives by making a vast swathe of the populace dependent on in-work benefits such as tax credits and housing benefit, the mere hint of their removal having voters running to the Labour party for salvation. The result the ever so nice Cameron then Mrs May's flirtation with socialist policies.

This is suicide for the Conservative Party. Not only does Farage's Brexit Party want to do a clean exit from the EU, it is also into the small state, minimal welfare and slashing taxes - if we believe Nigel's mutterings on his radio show. Put Farage in a wig and dress, arm him with a large handbag, and it would be easy to believe that Mrs Thatcher is back!

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Confused...

I really want to support Nigel Farage's Brexit Party but I also want to stay in the EU. Farage's take on the State and Establishment is that he wants to close down huge chunks of it and give the money back to citizens in the form of tax cuts. Cameron (and Madame May is worse) got so carried away he was once heard about supporting the populace from cradle to grave. A majority of Conservatives are really pissed that the Party has moved so far away from Thatcherism. A majority also want complete freedom from the EU. Combine those two threads then the Brexit Party will get huge support in the MEP elections, if the Conservatives are really decimated then that momentum will flow through to a general election.

If we are actually going to leave the EU then we need to do so properly, with a massive rollback of the State and slashing of personal taxes to energize the country. Recall how a dismal Labour party got a massive shift in support, during the last election, by offering to pay university costs that saved many families 50,000 quid... Nigel can up the game by offering to phase out council tax, an outrageously expensive tax that is taken regardless of income and largely wasted on fixed costs and council inefficiencies, that would really kick the main political parties between the legs.

Just a thought, if the Brexit Party wants to get taken seriously, George Osborne as chancellor-in-waiting and armed with a tax cutting agenda on the back of slashing the size of the State, would surely hammer home the death of the Conservative Party.

Friday, April 12, 2019

The Brexit Party

Sad thing is, I agree with Nigel Farage on rolling back the state and low taxes but not exiting the EU. Farage has just launched his new party to fight the MEP elections, hoping that those who don't normally bother to vote will turn out to support him... the bookies odds are 3 to 1 on the Brexit Party getting the most votes! A Conservative wipe-out could well happen... big question then becomes will the 200 Tory MPs who want a no-deal exit become part of Nigel's party - probably not those who want to be PM! Will Change UK force Labour over to the remain camp if their five million voters who support Brexit decamp to Nigel's party.

First speaker after Nigel's rant, Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister Annunziata Rees-Mogg who has left the Conservatives to stand as a Brexit Party MEP. Sky news then shut down any coverage of the rest of the candidates but, no doubt, the newspapers will be full of it tomorrow.

BTW, it costs £25 to become a registered member of the Brexit Party, a bit on the heavy side for all those working class Labour voters who might be tempted but probably just the cost of a glass of champagne in the circles in which Nigel moves - some of the MEP candidates property developers and financial advisers, not exactly the salt of the earth.