Monday, March 18, 2019

Monster Raving Loony Party...

Whilst Boris and JRM tend to amuse the general populace, some of the more extreme Brexiteers being showcased by the media appear quite frightening, almost frothing at the mouth at the sheer outrage of not getting their way and surely more at home in the Monster Raving Loony Party... a poll showing Labour nicely ahead possibly not disconnected from these gentlemen gaining wide media attention. I say this as someone who thought Mrs Thatcher was wonderful; ever hopeful that Lord Tebbit might be wheeled out of retirement to sort out excessive government spending. So God knows what the populace at large think of them!

Saturday, March 16, 2019

May's third attempt could work...

Hints from the ERG and DUP that they might come onside with May's deal but with no-deal off the table will Remainers stay with the deal? Be hilarious if May finally got the Brexiteers' reluctant backing only to have the other side of her party deciding not to support it. That then leaves an extension or revoking Article 50 - will the EU chance no extension in the hope that Article 50 would then be revoked? Hard to believe Mrs May will come up with anything new on her deal, only option there is to agree to a ratification referendum, her deal versus remain, which the EU would happily agree to (they can still bring in an improved deal over what they offered Cameron). Overall then, best thing for the country is for May's deal to fail, win-win for Remainers.

Friday, March 15, 2019

People's Vote Down...

On the face of it, not much support for the People's Vote amendment but that was down to the nature of the vote - it was important for the original motion on the extension to get through, if the referendum amendment had passed then the Tories would have had to whip against their own extension, plunging the country into even more chaos. Let's hope that the EU insists on a ratification referendum if the UK wants a long extension. From these couple of day's voting, looks like there are a hardcore of 200 MP's who want a really hard Brexit, not enough to bring it to fruition. May's third vote on her deal next week likely to be undermined by soft-Brexiteers deciding to no longer support it because, ironically, no-deal will be off the table if the deal fails.

Time for the EU to step up with a better deal than they offered Cameron, thus heaping more madness into the mix.

Thursday, March 14, 2019

How to get harmony back...

No deal is off the table and Mrs May looked like she was about to eat her own head whilst some ERG members looked like they were about to explode in rage. Today, more amendments to the extension motion, a free vote so, again, anything can happen...

What should happen, a 21 month extension to the end of the EU's fiscal cycle. A change in EU law so that the UK does not need to have MEPs but can opt out of any legislation that arises. The EU then decides to negotiate the trade deal without the withdrawal agreement being ratified by the UK, a twelve month deadline for the final trade/withdrawal deal with the implication that the backstop will not need to be used because the trade deal will make it obsolete.

That extra nine months needed because once the trade deal has been agreed this can then act as an interim period to sort out roll-overs of existing trade deals and finalize other trade deals. It is also needed because there will need to be ratification referendum between the final deal and remain, the EU will need to insist on that if the UK is going to get that long extension. That's not all, if a suitable trade deal without the backstop can't be agreed then the second vote will be on remain versus no deal, keeping the ERG on side.

DUP happy, ERG kinda happy, PM happy as she would still have plenty of levers of power against the EU, Remainers happy as they would have a second vote...

Oh, one final twist, whilst the trade deal is going on, the government would have a second negotiation with the EU on improving the deal they offered Cameron, mostly centered on muting the attractions of freedom of movement by having a tough five year residence test. That would satisfy about 75 percent of the Brexiteers. 

Dr Fox doing the trade deal and Amber Rudd doing the improved deal for staying in the EU?

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Revoking Article 50...

With time running out and MP's likely to vote to take no deal off the table today (hopefully the original motion will be amended to actually make some sense), the next step seems to be to revoke Article 50 - no point having a General Election as Corbyn won't run on staying in the EU (dismal performance last night) and the Conservatives won't run with May at the helm; no point on a People's Vote on May's Deal versus Remain because the ERG can't now turn round and say they support May's deal, so no serious politician is going to lead the Leave side on that basis. So by a process of elimination all that is left is to Revoke Article 50, supported by roughly 60 percent of the populace. Mrs May would have to stand down after doing the deed but both she and Corbyn, for different reasons, look near the end of their tether and could benefit from hitting the nearest retirement home. 

Boris Johnson would have to saddle up pronto, save the country from chaos by bringing in a retrospective, five year residence test that barred access to welfare, social housing, the personal tax allowance etc, to placate the bulk of Leavers who dislike Freedom of Movement. Some nimbleness in rolling back the State and cutting taxes, including phasing out Council Tax, would steady the Tory ship and send Labour ever leftwards. Throw in some further reforms to the EU to allow the euro country to integrate further and it would all work out in the end.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

EU holds firm...

Predictably, given that no-deal is almost off the table, the EU is not giving any ground on the backstop despite the UK's negotiators shouting loudly at them, a trick that may perturb and even shock Conservatives in favour of Empire 2.0 whose fore-bearers did very well on the back of shouting at foreigners who did not speak English. Meanwhile, Labour is still trying to get out of supporting a second vote, preferring a pointless, very soft Brexit. The LibDems carry on whining about almost everything and TIG are trying to convince the world they are still, er, Socialists - expect the ex-Conservative trio to do a disappearing act any time soon.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Too many laws, too little enforcement...

The UK works as a lightly policed society because the civilised majority of the populace recognise that it's much more pleasant to have a rule based country than one where anything goes. If people aren't able to step up to life in such a society they need to be dealt with by the police and lawyers. The law, though, has been brought into disrepute by the sheer excess of minor laws spewed out by Parliament, most only there to justify the excessive salaries of the MP's. You end up with absurdities such as a council being able to fine you £5000 for changing a window without permission whilst people who enter the country illegally are not immediately thrown back from whence they came (the same councils perhaps using these fines to house and feed the illegal immigrants).

Whilst minor laws can come with outrageously high fines, serious laws are often accompanied with laughable prison terms - prisons where the criminals are allowed to replicate their outside hierarchy and commit even more crimes which largely go unpunished - knifing someone, for instance, very rarely getting decade long terms of incarceration. All this spews up rage under the veneer of civilised society, especially when such crimes creep out from the ghetto into mainstream areas. 

This all starts in the schools where the lack of discipline encourages youths to act out the stuff they see on social media and parts of the UK regress to third world status where gang members gain initiation by mugging/knifing innocents. With Brexit meaning much less government spending, school class sizes will have to increase and that won't work unless there is serious redress when kids play up. I am sure a lot of older Conservatives have fond memories of the cane and can't wait to get that going again...

Brexit is an opportune moment to roll back all these minor laws and concentrate on serious punishment for the important stuff... the current government has a disturbing penchant for rolling out endless laws that are so poorly thought out that they have repercussions beyond what they are supposed to fix and is largely unfit for purpose, albeit infinitely preferable to the Marxist inspired alternative... best hope at the moment, Boris Johnson will ride to the rescue (reigned in by a proper Conservative chancellor such as John Redwood).