Monday, February 25, 2019

Youth Vote Kicks Corbyn into 2nd Referendum

Labour now supports a second vote, May's deal versus remain, totted as a confirmatory vote, the amendment going down on March 12th. Fear of losing the youth vote to The Independent Group most likely the cause of this change of heart though Labour were keen to point out that it is already their policy. The timing is crap, though, because it takes things right down to the wire and the actual vote will be very close. If it was better timed then the EU could stonewall Mrs May and still have space to alter the backstop at the last moment if the amendment failed. Now it could stonewall and find that no deal is the result. On the other hand, the ERG might change their minds and go for Mrs May's deal regardless of the backstop just to stop the second vote, not sure where that would leave the DUP on a subsequent confidence vote, though. Mrs May is under pressure to take no deal off the table, both via an amendment this week and from her own cabinet. Anything could happen...

If a general election happens any time soon and Labour supports remain, expect them to wipe out both The Independent Group and the Liberal Democrats - they will lose some pro Brexit, working class seats but with more than 60 percent of the electorate  wanting to stay in the EU the numbers are going to be on their side. Labour restrained by EU laws a lot more palatable than a Labour post-Brexit that can do anything it likes to businesses and individuals. 

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