Thursday, March 14, 2019

How to get harmony back...

No deal is off the table and Mrs May looked like she was about to eat her own head whilst some ERG members looked like they were about to explode in rage. Today, more amendments to the extension motion, a free vote so, again, anything can happen...

What should happen, a 21 month extension to the end of the EU's fiscal cycle. A change in EU law so that the UK does not need to have MEPs but can opt out of any legislation that arises. The EU then decides to negotiate the trade deal without the withdrawal agreement being ratified by the UK, a twelve month deadline for the final trade/withdrawal deal with the implication that the backstop will not need to be used because the trade deal will make it obsolete.

That extra nine months needed because once the trade deal has been agreed this can then act as an interim period to sort out roll-overs of existing trade deals and finalize other trade deals. It is also needed because there will need to be ratification referendum between the final deal and remain, the EU will need to insist on that if the UK is going to get that long extension. That's not all, if a suitable trade deal without the backstop can't be agreed then the second vote will be on remain versus no deal, keeping the ERG on side.

DUP happy, ERG kinda happy, PM happy as she would still have plenty of levers of power against the EU, Remainers happy as they would have a second vote...

Oh, one final twist, whilst the trade deal is going on, the government would have a second negotiation with the EU on improving the deal they offered Cameron, mostly centered on muting the attractions of freedom of movement by having a tough five year residence test. That would satisfy about 75 percent of the Brexiteers. 

Dr Fox doing the trade deal and Amber Rudd doing the improved deal for staying in the EU?

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