Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Mrs May does not get it...

The Cameron/Osborne combination worked well for as long as it lasted. Cameron gave the Conservatives a very British - in the best sense of the word - front whilst Osborne was able to slash public spending and taxes, keeping the Conservative base support happy, or at least not enraged. There was relative restraint in bringing in new laws rather than the endless stream that politicians like to enact to justify their excessive salaries and very existence. 

Enter Mrs May, one of the reasons she got in was undoubtedly nostalgia for the days of Mrs Thatcher. Whilst Madame May has a similar determination to the Iron Lady she lacks any kind of vision other than hanging on to power by all possible means. She seems to believe that the main purpose of the State is its expansion by means of endless laws and often finds her ideas straight from the mouth of wannabe Marxist Corbyn. 

The great mass of Conservative supporters want none of this nonsense but this mostly goes unsaid or even unrealised, such is the intensity of angst and rage about Brexit. Gordon Brown cleverly set a massive trap for the Conservatives by making a vast swathe of the populace dependent on in-work benefits such as tax credits and housing benefit, the mere hint of their removal having voters running to the Labour party for salvation. The result the ever so nice Cameron then Mrs May's flirtation with socialist policies.

This is suicide for the Conservative Party. Not only does Farage's Brexit Party want to do a clean exit from the EU, it is also into the small state, minimal welfare and slashing taxes - if we believe Nigel's mutterings on his radio show. Put Farage in a wig and dress, arm him with a large handbag, and it would be easy to believe that Mrs Thatcher is back!

Saturday, April 13, 2019


I really want to support Nigel Farage's Brexit Party but I also want to stay in the EU. Farage's take on the State and Establishment is that he wants to close down huge chunks of it and give the money back to citizens in the form of tax cuts. Cameron (and Madame May is worse) got so carried away he was once heard about supporting the populace from cradle to grave. A majority of Conservatives are really pissed that the Party has moved so far away from Thatcherism. A majority also want complete freedom from the EU. Combine those two threads then the Brexit Party will get huge support in the MEP elections, if the Conservatives are really decimated then that momentum will flow through to a general election.

If we are actually going to leave the EU then we need to do so properly, with a massive rollback of the State and slashing of personal taxes to energize the country. Recall how a dismal Labour party got a massive shift in support, during the last election, by offering to pay university costs that saved many families 50,000 quid... Nigel can up the game by offering to phase out council tax, an outrageously expensive tax that is taken regardless of income and largely wasted on fixed costs and council inefficiencies, that would really kick the main political parties between the legs.

Just a thought, if the Brexit Party wants to get taken seriously, George Osborne as chancellor-in-waiting and armed with a tax cutting agenda on the back of slashing the size of the State, would surely hammer home the death of the Conservative Party.

Friday, April 12, 2019

The Brexit Party

Sad thing is, I agree with Nigel Farage on rolling back the state and low taxes but not exiting the EU. Farage has just launched his new party to fight the MEP elections, hoping that those who don't normally bother to vote will turn out to support him... the bookies odds are 3 to 1 on the Brexit Party getting the most votes! A Conservative wipe-out could well happen... big question then becomes will the 200 Tory MPs who want a no-deal exit become part of Nigel's party - probably not those who want to be PM! Will Change UK force Labour over to the remain camp if their five million voters who support Brexit decamp to Nigel's party.

First speaker after Nigel's rant, Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister Annunziata Rees-Mogg who has left the Conservatives to stand as a Brexit Party MEP. Sky news then shut down any coverage of the rest of the candidates but, no doubt, the newspapers will be full of it tomorrow.

BTW, it costs £25 to become a registered member of the Brexit Party, a bit on the heavy side for all those working class Labour voters who might be tempted but probably just the cost of a glass of champagne in the circles in which Nigel moves - some of the MEP candidates property developers and financial advisers, not exactly the salt of the earth.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

End of the Conservatives?

The LibDems generally did a good job in the Coalition government but were hammered in the next elections, partly down to them not standing up against tuition fees and partly down to Labour promising Lefties that they would turn the country into a socialist paradise. Despite being the only main party to promote staying in the EU, the LibDems still languish at less than ten percent in the polls and show no signs of a popular revival. Change UK may or may not eat into Labour's vote and may or may not completely wipe out the LibDems.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives aren't doing that badly in the polls despite the tribulations of Madame May and getting on for 200 Tory MP's wanting to fast exit the EU without a deal. If Madame May ends up giving in to demands for a second referendum, her deal versus remain, and the latter wins where would that leave the Conservatives in the next election? Possibly as many as sixty percent of their voters would be seriously pissed off, which would be annihilation in the polls. Given that she only did the referendum after pressure from Labour, none of those young voters are going to give her credit for it. Whilst stalwart Labour Leavers will blame the Tories for not leaving rather than Labour.

That just leaves someone like Boris to meander merrily along for a year or two, hoping that a hefty bit of tax cutting will get the troops back in line and the thought of a Marxist Britain will frighten the shit out of the half of the populace who have a bit of money. Bad odds on a Conservative win, I would say.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Here we go again...

Madame May has come back from Brussels with a six month extension to Oct 31st with the option of fast exiting if the WA is passed by Parliament beforehand. No changes will be allowed in the WA and MEP elections will have to take place, though they can be cancelled at the last moment if the WA is passed before they need to sit. Bizarrely, Labour is shown way ahead in a poll on the MEP elections with the smaller parties doing not very much, what the f..k are the Remainers thinking?

The ERG are still going on about leaving on March 29th but the only way they can leave without a deal is via a second referendum. The Remainers want a second referendum in the hope that the polls showing 60 percent in favour of staying are actually true. Come on then, guys and gals, the only way forward is a second referendum on remain versus no-deal, if MP's passed that Madame May would have to step down as she would look ridiculous, having wasted three years on a deal no-one wants.

Incidentally, seeing the French president flouncing around, railing against the Brits, will most likely get a lot more voters going over to the no-deal side. 

Sunday, April 7, 2019

Boris to the rescue?

Parliament won't allow no-deal and Mrs May has now said no-deal is not possible. How to get no-deal and unseat Mrs May from her throne? Boris Johnson needs to provide an alternative that the Conservative party can rally around and the only thing that makes sense is to call for a referendum in six months time, with remain versus no-deal. This should make both remainers - who will assume they will win - and leavers happy, who will have the combined power of Boris and Farage to lead their cause. Even Mrs May would not survive the complete dropping of her deal from the referendum, Boris then as PM leading the charge to fast exit the EU would reattach the Tories to their electorate. But a further twist would be to ask for an extension until the end of the EU's fiscal period, thus giving no-deal 14 months of breathing space if they won... we would still be exiting the EU on the same date if you add in the transition period mandated by May's deal. Meanwhile, there would be little to stop Boris from making radical changes to tax and welfare, promising yet more if Brexit happens.

Another thought, if May had to stand down as PM and MP then her seat could be given to Nigel Farage, that would really reset the Conservative party...

Even if no-deal lost the second vote, the Conservatives could still claim to have given the people their chance for a say and would not have alienated remainers, unlike now.

Friday, April 5, 2019

The Blame Game

Mrs May looks set to blame the EU for insisting on a long extension - if there was any sanity left it would be 20 months, until the end of the EU's fiscal period - rather than her now repeated demand of June 30th. She can blame Labour for not compromising and agreeing to her demands for needing such an extension and then, hopefully, both Labour and the EU for demanding a second referendum if she is going to have a decent reason for a long extension. The ERG now hopeful that a long enough extension will give them a chance to replace Mrs May and go all hardcore on the EU. The DUP find the EU intransigent, Mrs May ludicrous and Labour completely beyond the pale. Meanwhile, Farage is looking for his Brexit Party to dominate the MEP elections and cause so much havoc in Brussels that the EU will lose all patience with the UK, throw them to the wolves of WTO tariff terms.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

The Going Gets Tough...

With one motion coming out a draw and an actual law passed by one vote, Parliament emerges as genuinely deadlocked on Brexit. However one vote is enough to get a bill through, this one tells the government to ask the EU for an extension, the length of that extension to be determined by parliament. The EU will only give a long extension if there is a good reason for it, so if parliament demands a one year extension by implication a second vote comes much closer to reality.

Meanwhile, not since the Falklands war has the general populace been so immersed in politics, the general comment made that we should have just left rather than messing around with a hardcore EU bureaucracy. Totally unrelated forums and subjects often interjected with opposing comments on Brexit. No idea what will happen next...

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

All Good Fun...

It is notable that when Trump gives a statement he usually hangs around to take questions from journalists - sometimes for more than an hour - whereas Mrs May will make a statement and immediately do a disappearing act. We all wait with baited breath to see if she emerges for the next statement hand-in-hand with Corbyn, having picked up a few Marxist mantras along the way to lull her into a dreamless sleep. We are at that point where the process has to feed Mrs May's ego, a mindless determination to step down with the job of exiting the EU well done. 

The compromise position will possibly be a permanent customs union for all of the UK, which the DUP may grudgingly accept as it sort of solves the border problem and, more importantly, treats NI the same as the rest of the UK. The Brexiteers will scowl and howl but as long as it is in the non-binding political declaration then they will not be too worried, a new leader equals throwing that away so they are no worse off than at the moment.

Corbyn's party want a second referendum, something that might split the Tory party as it would mean the end of Brexit... so does Corbyn want out of the EU more than he wants to destroy the hated Conservatives?